A new method for interpreting nonstationary running correlations and its application to the ENSO-EAWM relationship

We here propose a new statistical method to interpret nonstationary running correlations by decomposing them into a stationary part and a first-order Taylor expansion approximation for the nonstationary part. Then, this method is applied to investigate the nonstationary behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship, which exhibits prominent multidecadal variations. It is demonstrated that the first-order approximation of the nonstationary part can be expressed to a large extent by the impact of the nonlinear interaction between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and ENSO (AMO*Nino3.4) on the EAWM. Therefore, the nonstationarity in the ENSO-EAWM relationship comes predominantly from the impact of an AMO modulation on the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection via this key nonlinear interaction. This general method can be applied to investigate nonstationary relationships that are often observed between various different climate phenomena.

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Copyright 2018 American Geophysical Union.
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Author Geng, Xin
Zhang, Wenjun
Jin, Fei-Fei
Stuecker, Malte F.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2018-01-08T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T19:16:26.751675
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:21300
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Geng, Xin, Zhang, Wenjun, Jin, Fei-Fei, Stuecker, Malte F.. (2018). A new method for interpreting nonstationary running correlations and its application to the ENSO-EAWM relationship. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qn69dk. Accessed 23 February 2025.

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