A new method for interpreting nonstationary running correlations and its application to the ENSO-EAWM relationship
We here propose a new statistical method to interpret nonstationary running correlations by decomposing them into a stationary part and a first-order Taylor expansion approximation for the nonstationary part. Then, this method is applied to investigate the nonstationary behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship, which exhibits prominent multidecadal variations. It is demonstrated that the first-order approximation of the nonstationary part can be expressed to a large extent by the impact of the nonlinear interaction between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and ENSO (AMO*Nino3.4) on the EAWM. Therefore, the nonstationarity in the ENSO-EAWM relationship comes predominantly from the impact of an AMO modulation on the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection via this key nonlinear interaction. This general method can be applied to investigate nonstationary relationships that are often observed between various different climate phenomena.
document
http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qn69dk
eng
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publication
2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
publication
2018-01-08T00:00:00Z
Copyright 2018 American Geophysical Union.
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