Responses of Arctic black carbon and surface temperature to multi-region emission reductions: a Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) ensemble modeling study

Black carbon (BC) emissions play an important role in regional climate change in the Arctic. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of long-range transport from regions outside the Arctic as BC emissions from local sources in the Arctic were relatively small. The task force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) set up a series of simulation scenarios to investigate the response of BC in a given region to different source regions. This study investigated the responses of Arctic BC concentrations and surface temperature to 20% anthropogenic emission reductions from six regions in 2010 within the framework of HTAP2 based on ensemble modeling results. Emission reductions from East Asia (EAS) had the most (monthly contributions: 0.2-1.5 ng m(-3)) significant impact on the Arctic near-surface BC concentrations, while the monthly contributions from Europe (EUR), Middle East (MDE), North America (NAM), Russia-Belarus-Ukraine (RBU), and South Asia (SAS) were 0.2-1.0, 0.001-0.01, 0.1-0.3, 0.1-0.7, and 0.0-0.2 ng m(-3), respectively. The responses of the vertical profiles of the Arctic BC to the six regions were found to be different due to multiple transport pathways. Emission reductions from NAM, RBU, EUR, and EAS mainly influenced the BC concentrations in the low troposphere of the Arctic, while most of the BC in the upper troposphere of the Arctic derived from SAS. The response of the Arctic BC to emission reductions in six source regions became less significant with the increase in the latitude. The benefit of BC emission reductions in terms of slowing down surface warming in the Arctic was evaluated by using absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP). Compared to the response of global temperature to BC emission reductions, the response of Arctic temperature was substantially more sensitive, highlighting the need for curbing global BC emissions.

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Author Zhao, Na
Dong, Xinyi
Huang, Kan
Fu, Joshua S.
Lund, Marianne Tronstad
Sudo, Kengo
Henze, Daven
Kucsera, Tom
Lam, Yun Fat
Chin, Mian
Tilmes, Simone
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2021-06-08T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:28:43.273014
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24490
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Zhao, Na, Dong, Xinyi, Huang, Kan, Fu, Joshua S., Lund, Marianne Tronstad, Sudo, Kengo, Henze, Daven, Kucsera, Tom, Lam, Yun Fat, Chin, Mian, Tilmes, Simone. (2021). Responses of Arctic black carbon and surface temperature to multi-region emission reductions: a Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) ensemble modeling study. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7cc1445. Accessed 31 January 2025.

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