Prediction of a flash flood in complex terrain. Part I: A comparison of rainfall estimates from radar, and very short range rainfall simulations from a dynamic model and an automated algorithmic system

Operational prediction of flash floods caused by convective rainfall in mountainous areas requires accurate estimates or predictions of the rainfall distribution in space and time. The details of the spatial distribution are especially critical in complex terrain because the watersheds generally are small in size, and position errors in the placement of the rainfall can distribute the rain over the wrong watershed. In addition to the need for good rainfall estimates, accurate flood prediction requires a surface-hydrologic model that is capable of predicting stream or river discharge based on the rainfall-rate input data. In part 1 of this study, different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective rainfall are applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado, flash flood of July 1996, during which over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h. The hydrologic impact of the rainfall was exacerbated by the fact that a considerable fraction of the watershed experienced a wildfire approximately two months prior to the rain event. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band, dual-polarization radar, collocated east of Denver, Colorado, were compared. Very short range simulations from a convection-resolving dynamic model that was initialized variationally using the radar reflectivity and Doppler winds were compared with simulations from an automated algorithmic forecast system that also employs the radar data. The radar estimates of rain rate and the two forecasting systems that employ the radar data have degraded accuracy by virtue of the fact that they are applied in complex terrain. Nevertheless, the dynamic model and automated algorithms both produce simulations that could be useful operationally for input to surface-hydrologic models employed for flood warning. Part 2 of this study, reported in a companion paper, describes experiments in which these radar-based precipitation estimates and dynamic model–and automated algorithm–based precipitation simulations are used as input to a surface-hydrologic model for simulation of the stream discharge associated with the flood.