Does ENSO regularity increase in a warming climate?

The impact of a warming climate on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in large-ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). These simulations are forced by historical emissions for the past and the RCP8.5-scenario emissions for future projections. The simulated variance of the Nino-3.4 ENSO index increases from 1.4 degrees C-2 in 1921-80 to 1.9 degrees C-2 in 1981-2040 and 2.2 degrees C-2 in 2041-2100. The autocorrelation time scale of the index also increases, consistent with a narrowing of its spectral peak in the 3-7-yr ENSO band, raising the possibility of greater seasonal to interannual predictability in the future. Low-order linear inverse models (LIMs) fitted separately to the three 60-yr periods capture the CESM1 increase in ENSO variance and regularity. Remarkably, most of the increase can be attributed to the increase in the 23-month damping time scale of a single damped oscillatory ENSO eigenmode of these LIMs by 5 months in 1981-2040 and 6 months in 2041-2100. These apparently robust projected increases may, however, be compromised by CESM1 biases in ENSO amplitude and damping time scale. An LIM fitted to the 1921-80 observations has an ENSO eigenmode with a much shorter 8-month damping time scale, similar to that of several other eigenmodes. When the mode's damping time scale is increased by 5 and 6 months in this observational LIM, a much smaller increase of ENSO variance is obtained than in the CESM1 projections. This may be because ENSO is not as dominated by a single ENSO eigenmode in reality as it is in the CESM1.