An update of Brazilian household-level income and consumption patterns as an input to the iPETS model

The integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model is a global integrated assessment model developed and used by NCAR’s Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group to understand how key aspects of society may evolve in the future and how they might interact with a changing climate. Income and consumption patterns of households by demographic characteristics (age, rural/urban residence, education, and household size) for representative regions around the world are an important input to iPETS. These income and consumption patterns are obtained and analyzed from country-specific socioeconomic household surveys, and results are combined with demographic projections about expected changes in population size, age composition, education, household structure, and urbanization to improve economic, energy, land use, and emissions projections. Because household income and consumption patterns can change substantially over time, particularly in developing countries, periodic updates of the household-level data used in iPETS are needed. This paper describes an updated analysis of the Brazilian 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey as an input to iPETS. Our results indicate higher levels of income and expenditures for Brazilian households associated with higher levels of education, lower household sizes, urban residence (versus rural), and access to electricity. Comparing the current dataset with a previous dataset used in iPETS (2002-2003), we found a general increase in household expenditures after controlling for inflation, particularly for the consumption of food and transportation goods. We also found improved data quality in the current dataset.