Identification

Title

Population projections for US states under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways based on global gridded population projections

Abstract

Population projections across scales are essential for integrated assessment of global environmental changes. Currently, projections at the aggregate national scale, and at the grid-cell scale, are available globally and for many individual countries. However few projections exist at intermediate scales, such as US states, which are important for capturing broad-scale redistribution of population through internal migration. We are currently developing explicit US state-level projections, from which we will create consistent gridded outcomes. Here we present a placeholder set of projections that could be used in analyses while waiting on explicit state projections. These placeholder projections are based on an existing set of global gridded projections, which we aggregate (upscale) to the state level to produce a set of projections numerically consistent at the grid cell, state and national level. We test alternative aggregation methods and geographic resolutions of the gridded population to derive the aggregate state-level projections for all 50 states (and Puerto Rico), for rural and urban areas. Results show that with high resolution gridded population data for the present population, the upscaling outcomes match reasonably well total population at the national and state levels. Comparison of the state-level projections aggregated from the grid cell level to explicit state projections from the US Census Bureau through 2030 show that results are reasonable for many states, but are much less reliable for states experiencing population dynamics differing from national overall patterns. Results therefore also demonstrate the need for a new set of alternative, state-level population projections with consistent gridded outcomes.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7cv4mc2

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Keyword set

keyword value

EARTH SCIENCE > HUMAN DIMENSIONS > SOCIOECONOMICS

EARTH SCIENCE > HUMAN DIMENSIONS > POPULATION

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2021-09-17

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2018-01-09T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Copyright Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2023-08-18T18:06:44.272614

Metadata language