Identification

Title

Data for Exploring the Relative Contribution of the MJO and ENSO to Midlatitude Subseasonal Predictability

Abstract

Here we explore the relative contribution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to midlatitude subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied to pre-industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows. Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important. However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states, offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO teleconnections.

Resource type

dataset

Resource locator

https://gdex.ucar.edu/dataset/id/e60e7fa2-964e-4d21-8e7f-a2964efd21f0.html

protocol: https

applicationProfile: browser

name: Data for Exploring the Relative Contribution of the MJO and ENSO to Midlatitude Subseasonal Predictability

description: Metadata Link

function: download

Unique resource identifier

code

codeSpace

Dataset language

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Dataset

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2014-10-16

Keyword set

keyword value

EARTH SCIENCE > CLIMATE INDICATORS > ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS > TELECONNECTIONS > EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

EARTH SCIENCE > CLIMATE INDICATORS > ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS > TELECONNECTIONS > MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2018-03-15

Keyword set

keyword value

Other > Models > Cesm > Ncar Community Earth System Model

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2018-03-15

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

-180.0

East bounding longitude

180.0

North bounding latitude

90.0

South bounding latitude

-90.0

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

0100

End position

0400

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2024-02-12

date type

modified

effective date

2024-02-05

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

application/x-netcdf

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory

email address

wchapman@ucar.edu

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - GDEX

email address

gdex@ucar.edu

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2024-03-01T13:31:18-07:00

Metadata language