Data for Exploring the Relative Contribution of the MJO and ENSO to Midlatitude Subseasonal Predictability
Here we explore the relative contribution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to midlatitude subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied to pre-industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows. Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important. However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states, offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO teleconnections.
dataset
https://gdex.ucar.edu/dataset/id/e60e7fa2-964e-4d21-8e7f-a2964efd21f0.html
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name: Data for Exploring the Relative Contribution of the MJO and ENSO to Midlatitude Subseasonal Predictability
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Dataset
revision
2014-10-16
EARTH SCIENCE > CLIMATE INDICATORS > ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS > TELECONNECTIONS > EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
EARTH SCIENCE > CLIMATE INDICATORS > ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS > TELECONNECTIONS > MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
revision
2018-03-15
Other > Models > Cesm > Ncar Community Earth System Model
revision
2018-03-15
-180.0
180.0
90.0
-90.0
0100
0400
publication
2024-02-12
modified
2024-02-05
application/x-netcdf
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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UCAR/NCAR - Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory
pointOfContact
UCAR/NCAR - GDEX
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2024-03-01T13:31:18-07:00