Identification

Title

Confidence Intervals for Forecast Verification

Abstract

The manuscript is an attempt to present in a single document the various types of confidence intervals, their assumptions, and other issues as they pertain to forecast verification applications. Confidence intervals can be categorized into parametric and nonparametric intervals. The most common parametric intervals are those based on the assumption of approximate normality. Such intervals are discussed in detail for those verification statistics that use this approximation, in addition to details about the assumptions involved and how to check and account for the assumptions. Bootstrap intervals are also discussed. Of particular importance are the assumptions underlying the bootstrap procedure, which are frequently overlooked because of a miscommunication that the procedure has no assumptions. When the assumptions are met, or they are accounted for within the bootstrap procedure, then this approach can provide highly accurate intervals for most statistics of interest. The various bootstrap confidence intervals (along with their pros and cons) and bootstrap methods are described.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d77d2tkr

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Keyword set

keyword value

EARTH SCIENCE SERVICES > DATA ANALYSIS AND VISUALIZATION > STATISTICAL APPLICATIONS

EARTH SCIENCE SERVICES > MODELS > WEATHER RESEARCH/FORECAST MODELS

originating controlled vocabulary

title

U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2021-09-17

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Copyright Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2023-08-18T18:05:15.920777

Metadata language

eng; USA