Identification

Title

The Improved Urbanization Projections of the NCAR Community Demographic Model (CDM)

Abstract

The urbanization projections, as one important components of the NCAR Community Demographic Model, has been developed to meet the requirement of climate change research communities for understanding the long-term and alternative urbanization trends. The model was used to generate global national urbanization projections for all countries under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) – the new IPCC socioeconomic scenarios. This paper reports the new development of the CDM-Urbanization Projection Model which improves the previous model and the projection results in two main aspects. First, it makes urbanization projection for a region based on more historical data points of selected reference regions, and the selection of the reference regions is now conducted in a more systematic and holistic way. Second, the model is extended and adopted to project urbanization trends of subnational regions (provinces of China, states of India and the U.S., as examples). We carried out validation analysis through comparing projected urbanization trends in the past decades against observed urbanization records at both national and subnational levels. It shows that the improved model produces reasonable and unbiased projection outcomes, covering a wide range of plausible urbanization paths for the long- and medium-term for countries and subnational regions.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7sq9379

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Keyword set

keyword value

EARTH SCIENCE > HUMAN DIMENSIONS > GLOBAL CHANGE RESPONSES > SCENARIO PLANNING

EARTH SCIENCE > HUMAN DIMENSIONS > SOCIOECONOMICS

EARTH SCIENCE SERVICES > MODELS > SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC MODELS

EARTH SCIENCE > HUMAN DIMENSIONS > HUMAN SETTLEMENTS > URBAN AREAS

EARTH SCIENCE > HUMAN DIMENSIONS > HABITAT CONVERSION/FRAGMENTATION > URBANIZATION/URBAN SPRAWL

originating controlled vocabulary

title

U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2021-09-17

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2018-08-29T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Copyright Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2023-08-18T18:06:25.589966

Metadata language

eng; USA