Identification

Title

Metrics for Evaluation of Solar Energy Forecasts

Abstract

This technical note summarizes metrics that have been defined to assess the quality of forecasts of solar irradiance and solar power production forecasting. A set of six base metrics is proposed to meet the needs of users of solar power forecasts. Four of these metrics-Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, Distribution of Forecast Errors, and Categorical Statistics—provide statistical insights on overall forecast performance and aid in the comparison of different forecast models or to validate a single forecast model output against actual values. Two remaining base metrics translate forecast performance to economic value that will provide insights into the benefits realized with improved forecast accuracy. These six metrics provide a starting point for evaluation of the accuracy, precision, and value of solar forecasts. A set of enhanced metrics is also proposed to provide more detailed insights into forecast performance. Each proposed metric is defined with emphasis on the insight provided by the metric, its calculation process described, and its application illustrated with an example of a use case. Similar metrics are grouped together. Where possible, less technical metrics are described first and more difficult/more technical metrics are presented later. The base and enhanced metrics and their application are described in this report. A summary of discussions with stakeholders and guidelines for application of the metrics are presented in the appendices.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7vd713f

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Keyword set

keyword value

EARTH SCIENCE SERVICES > MODELS > WEATHER RESEARCH/FORECAST MODELS

EARTH SCIENCE > HUMAN DIMENSIONS > ECONOMIC RESOURCES > ENERGY PRODUCTION/USE > SOLAR ENERGY PRODUCTION/USE

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION > SOLAR IRRADIANCE

originating controlled vocabulary

title

U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2021-09-17

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-06-14T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Copyright 2016 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2023-08-18T18:06:34.175335

Metadata language

eng; USA