Identification

Title

Impact of Climate Change on Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes

Abstract

A state of the art modeling study was undertaken to estimate the most likely impacts of climate change on Gulf of Mexico hurricane intensity and frequency. The modeling study entailed the use of two state of the art sets of future climate change simulations. The first simulation was conducted using a Climate Ensemble approach over a large domain and at relatively high resolution compared to global climate models, and the second simulation was conducted at 4km higher resolution, over a limited domain covering a smaller sub-set of North America. Both simulations are based on the WRF (Skamarock et al., 2008) model. The first simulation addresses frequency changes of hurricanes, and to a lesser extent the change in intensity, while the second, addressed mainly changes in intensity of hurricanes in a future climate. The combined results of these two simulations show: * A tendency towards fewer hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and a slight reduction in the proportion of Atlantic hurricanes entering the Gulf. * An increased proportion of category 3, 4, and 5 storms in the Gulf of Mexico. * Increased precipitation for all cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. * The characteristics of future hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico are projected to be similar in size and track speed to current hurricanes. * These simulations predict a ~10% increase in cyclone damage potential for the most intense hurricanes. The prediction for fewer but more damaging hurricanes suggests the potential for substantial impacts on infrastructure and operations in the GOM in the future.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7r78hpk

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Keyword set

keyword value

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > WEATHER EVENTS > TROPICAL CYCLONES > PEAK INTENSITY

EARTH SCIENCE > CLIMATE INDICATORS > ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS > EXTREME WEATHER > TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY/INTENSITY

EARTH SCIENCE SERVICES > MODELS > WEATHER RESEARCH/FORECAST MODELS

EARTH SCIENCE > HUMAN DIMENSIONS > NATURAL HAZARDS > TROPICAL CYCLONES

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > WEATHER EVENTS > TROPICAL CYCLONES

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2021-09-17

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2017-08-16T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Copyright Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2023-08-18T18:06:40.627569

Metadata language