Identification

Title

Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy

Abstract

Warm-season quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are the poorest performance area of forecast systems worldwide. They stubbornly fall further behind while other aspects of weather prediction steadily improve. Unless a major effort is mounted to overcome the impediments to improved prediction, it is certain to remain the Achilles' heel of weather prediction, at a progressively greater cost to society. For these reasons and others, the Office of the Lead Scientist, U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP), commissioned a workshop to examine future courses of action to improve understanding and prediction of heavy warm-season rainfall and associated flood forecasts. The workshop was held in Boulder, Colorado, in March 2002. It was attended by 75 people and produced numerous ?white papers? and panel reports, all of which are readily available to the reader. Herein the major findings of the workshop are summarized, including an overarching strategy to achieve improved predictive skill and recommendations for future research and development. Improving warm-season QPFs requires a substantial and sustained commitment of resources focusing on a complex suite of issues. The basic strategy is to take those steps that will facilitate forecasting deep, moist convection in a fully probabilistic manner wherein the statistical properties of the forecast convection are similar to those observed in nature. A warm-season QPF program should be inclusive of a testbed framework, wherein development and testing of each and all components of the forecast system can be conducted; impediments to operations can be identified and corrected; and socioeconomic value, at the margin, can be researched and identified.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7bv7h5z

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

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Temporal extent

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End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2004-07-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

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Conformity

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Constraints related to access and use

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Use constraints

Copyright 2004 American Meteorological Society. Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC ?108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license form the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyright@ametsoc.org.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact